CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sun 06 Nov 06:00 - Mon 07 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 06 Nov 00:29 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Intense zonal Atlantic upper jet is advecting eastwards ... with lead vort max crossing the British Isles and the North Sea during the period. Cut-off low over the W Mediterranean is expected to move slowly into the central Mediterranean ... remaining main focus for convective activity through the period.

DISCUSSION

...central Mediterranean...
CAPE should remain rather weak over the Mediterranean ... FCST deep-layer shear on the order of 15 m/s ... and increasing LL shear late in the day. This and low LFC heights and little/no CINH suggest that a few brief/weak tornadoes may occur. Also ... the strongest cells could produce some hail and strong wind gusts. Organized severe threat should be too low for a SLGT.

...S British Isles ... Channel Region...
Narrow plume of moist/Subtropical Atlantic air should cross the British Isles ... France and the Benelux States on Sunday. Latest SFLOC data indicate isolated TSTMS occurring in this air mass ... but model guidance is inconsistent as to maintainance of CAPE in this air mass through Sunday. It is not entirely remote that isolated/shallow convective cells will be imbedded along the cold front. These would pose some tornado threat given intense shear profiles ... but allover chances of severe seem to be quite low ... and no categorical risk appears to be necessary ATTM.

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